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Thursday, December 3, 2015

First Time Jobless Claims Rise 9K

Initial claims, up 9,000, did rise in the November 28 week but, at 269,000, remain near historic lows and continue to point to lack of slack in the jobs market. Still, the 4-week average, at 269,250, is trending roughly 10,000 above the month-ago trend in a comparison that does not point to further improvement for either the unemployment rate or payroll growth.

Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, are also steady and tell the same story, up 6,000 in the November 21 week to 2.161 million. The 4-week average is down 2,000 to 2.167 million and is showing very little change against the month-ago comparison. The unemployment rate for insured workers remains unchanged at a very low 1.6 percent.

There are no special factors in today's report though data for Louisiana, which is having computer troubles, had to be estimated for a second week. Today's report will not alter expectations at all for tomorrow's employment report where respectable strength is the call.


Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims have been trending at 42-year lows and, as a share of the whole labor market, are likely at record lows. For the November 28 week, Econoday forecasters see initial claims giving back some of the prior week's improvement but not much, up 9,000 to what would be a still very low 269,000. It would take a reading far outside of expectations, something probably near 300,000, to upset the outlook for respectable strength in the November employment report. Continuing claims have also been at record lows.

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