First Time Jobless Claims Fall Sharply

Jobless claims are low and are pointing to stable and healthy conditions in the labor market. Initial claims, which did spike higher in the prior week, fell back sharply in the December 12 week, down 11,000 to 271,000 which makes for little change in the 4-week average at 270,500. Importantly, the December 12 week is the sample week for the December employment report and a claims comparison with the sample week of the November employment report shows virtually no change in either the weekly level or the 4-week average.

Continuing claims, where data lag, fell 7,000 in the December 5 week to 2.238 million. Here the 4-week average has been rising, up 16,000 in the latest data to a 2.200 million level that is trending more than 30,000 above the month-ago comparison. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 1.7 percent, a very low level but up 1 tenth from much of the third quarter.

There are no special factors in today's report though data for Louisiana, which is having computer troubles, was estimated for a fourth week in a row. Initial claims data in today's report should confirm expectations for another healthy month of employment growth, right in line with Federal Reserve expectations.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Initial jobless claims moved higher in the December 5 week, to 282,000 for the highest reading since July. Continuing claims also rose, to their highest level since September. Still, levels in this report remain near historic lows. The December 12 week carries special importance as it is also the sample week for the monthly employment report. Econoday forecasters see initial claims falling back, down 12,000 to 270,000 in a result that would point to continued improvement for the labor market.