Consumer Confidence Continues To Hold Near 18-Year Highs

The consumer confidence index continues to hold near 18-year highs, at 137.9 in October vs a revised 135.3 in September. The index remains within striking distance of the all-time high at 144.7 reached in 2000.

But a closely watched reading in this report, one used by forecasters to track the monthly employment report, is pointing to decreasing strength for the labor market. Those saying jobs are currently hard-to-get rose a noticeable 1.1 percentage points to 13.2 percent. This is offset by a 3.4 percentage rise in a less closely watched reading: those who say jobs are currently plentiful which is now at 45.7 percent.

The 6-month outlook for jobs is very upbeat as 1 full percentage point more, at 22.5 percent, see more jobs opening up with those who see fewer jobs ahead declining by 1.8 points to 11.0 percent. But there's a negative signal from a key reading on the outlook side and that's the percentage who see their income rising, down a sharp 2.8 points to 22.6 percent.

Inflation expectations are at 4.8 percent which is subdued for this particular reading but nevertheless is up 1 tenth in the month. Buying plans are steady with autos inching higher at a solid 13.8 percent and with homes rising 2 tenths to a still moderate 6.4 percent.

Those who see interest rates rising over the next year are at a sizable 72.8 percent for a 4.7 percentage point rise in the month that no doubt is tied to the Federal Reserve's plans for further rate increases. On stocks, the sample's bullishness despite recent volatility continues to rise, to 44.5 percent and a 2.6 point monthly gain with bears down 2.6 points to 19.1 percent.

This report is unmistakably strong yet still mixed with jobs-hard-to-get a small but definite negative along the fall in those seeing their incomes rising.