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Monday, December 13, 2021

Consumers see inflation rising in the year ahead, moderating in the longer term

Consumers are expecting inflation to climb higher in the year ahead, but they have tempered their expectations for the three-year timeframe, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data.

Median one-year ahead inflation expectations rose to 6.0% from 5.7% in October, according the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations take in November.

Not surprisingly, they expect to spend more in the year ahead.  Median year-ahead household spending growth expectations climbed by 0.3 percentage point to 5.7%, a new series high. The increase was largest for respondents with annual household incomes under $50K, the survey said.

For the three-year timeline, median inflation expectations fell to 4.0% in November vs. the 4.2% expectation in both the September and October surveys.

Respondents expressed more uncertainty over future inflation; median inflation uncertainty for both the short-term and medium-term horizons reached new series highs.

They expect the increase in home prices for the year ahead to decelerate to 5.0% from 5.6%, and now stands at the lowest level since March 2021.

Year-ahead price expectations for rent were unchanged at 10.0%, decreased by 0.2 percentage point for gas prices to 9.2%, increased by 0.1 percentage point for food prices to 9.2%, and increased by 0.2 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 9.6%; the median on-year ahead expected change in the cost of a college education rose by 1.6 percentage point to 9.1%, its highest level since March 2015.


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