Week Ahead Watch List

Rate hikes may well define the upcoming week. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and the Bank of Korea on Thursday, both of which are expected to lift rates by 25 basis points each. FOMC minutes on Wednesday will detail the Federal Reserve's decision at the beginning of the month to begin tapering. Expectations for Tuesday's run of November PMIs mostly call for slowing, whether for France or Germany or the UK. Expectations for the US PMIs call for steady strength. Outside of the PMI flash, US data will be concentrated on Wednesday including durable goods orders, international trade in goods (advance), new home sales, and personal income and outlays with this report's price indexes, the central price readings for the Federal Reserve, expected to accelerate noticeably including a 0.4 percent monthly rate for the PCE core which is expected to come in at 4.1 percent annually. Sentiment data will be another important feature of the week and forecasters see across the board deterioration: EC consumer confidence flash on Monday; French business climate indicator on Wednesday; and German Ifo business climate indicator on Wednesday and German GfK consumer climate on Thursday. Other data to watch will include a second strong retail sales report from Australia and quarterly strength for Swiss GDP.