Week Ahead Watch List

The week opens Monday with the first look at Japanese third-quarter GDP and contraction is the call. Chinese data follow in short order on Monday: both retail sales and fixed asset investment are expected to slow, but not industrial production which is expected to end a long run of slowing. Japanese machinery orders will be posted on Wednesday, where a bounce is expected, and consumer prices on Friday where no bounce at all is expected. In contrast, consumer prices in the UK are expected to show substantial heat in data released Wednesday, but not average earnings which are expected to slow as part of the UK labour market report that will be released Tuesday. Manufacturing sales for Canada are expected to come in very weak on Monday as are retail sales on Friday. Retail sales and industrial production from the US, in what would be a sharp contrast to Canada, are expected to show significant across-the-board strength in separate reports released on Tuesday. One report not to miss will be German producer prices on Friday where another super heated set of data are expected. Note that French and Italian CPI reports on Tuesday will be second estimates as will Eurozone harmonised consumer prices on Wednesday. Eurozone GDP on Tuesday will also be a second estimate.