Pending home sales surge in October after September's decline

Key Highlights

• Contract signings increased 7.5% in October from September, a reversal of last month’s decline. 
• Compared to the prior month, contract signings increased in all regions.
• Compared to one year ago, contract signings were 1.4% lower. 

Pending home sales increased in October, rebounding after a decline the month prior, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Contract activity rose month-over-month in each of the four major U.S. regions. On a year-over-year basis, however, transactions were split, as two regions reported drops and two others posted gains.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI),* www.nar.realtor/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, rose 7.5% to 125.2 in October. Year-over-year, signings fell 1.4%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“Motivated by fast-rising rents and the anticipated increase in mortgage rates, consumers that are on strong financial footing are signing contracts to purchase a home sooner rather than later,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “This solid buying is a testament to demand still being relatively high, as it is occurring during a time when inventory is still markedly low.

“The notable gain in October assures that total existing-home sales in 2021 will exceed 6 million, which will shape up to be the best performance in 15 years.”

While the market is expected to remain robust, Yun forecasts home prices will rise at a gentler pace over the course of the next several months and expects demand to be milder as mortgage rates increase. 

Realtor.com®’s Hottest Housing Markets data revealed that out of the largest 40 metros, the most improved metros over the past year, as of November 18, were Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.; Jacksonville, Fla.; Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.; Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas; and Nashville-Davidson, Tenn.

October Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown

Compared to the previous month, contract signings rose at the strongest pace in the Midwest and South regions. Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI increased 6.9% to 99.5 in October, a 10% drop from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index climbed 11.8% to 124.6 last month, up 5.1% from October 2020.

Pending home sales transactions in the South rose 8.0% to an index of 149.7 in October, up 0.6% from October 2020. The index in the West grew 2.1% in October to 107.5, down 6.2% from a year prior.