Week Ahead Watch List

The week will be filled with central-bank announcements and capped at week's end by a US employment report that will have immediate implications for Federal Reserve policy. Announcements begin on Tuesday from the Reserve Bank of Australia, end on Thursday with the Reserve Bank of India, and are expected to be punctuated in between on Wednesday by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand which, after dropping QE at its prior meeting, is expected to raise its policy rate. Supply-side data in the week will include industrial production from France on Tuesday then Germany on Thursday, the latter preceded on Wednesday by German manufacturers' orders where a decline, after two strong gains, is expected. Consumer data will include Eurozone retail sales on Wednesday and Japanese household spending on Friday. Two reports where surprises could trip quick reaction in the markets will be ISM services from the US on Tuesday and Caixan's services from China on Friday (the former has been strong, the latter weak). A big downside surprise in Friday's US employment report could upend the outlook: weak results then no tapering, strong or even moderate results then tapering begins. Econoday's consensus is a solidly strong nonfarm gain of 475,000 with the low estimate at a still passable 300,000. Canada will also release September employment data on Friday with strength also expected.