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Thursday, October 28, 2021

Q3 GDP: Economic activity decelerated to 2.0% annualized rate amid Delta variant, supply concerns

The U.S. economy expanded at its slowest clip in over a year in the third quarter, with a reopening surge in activity quickly beginning to fade.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product (GPD) on Wednesday. Here were the main metrics economists from the print, based on consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

  • GDP quarter-over-quarter, annualized: 2.0% vs. 2.6% expected, 6.7% in Q2

  • Personal consumption: 1.6% vs. 0.9% expected, 12.0% in Q2

  • Core personal consumption expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 4.5% vs. 4.5% expected, 6.1% in Q2

    The slowdown in economic activity coincided with the resurgence in Delta variant-related coronavirus cases in the July through September quarter. Positive impacts from stimulus checks and other economic relief delivered by the government earlier this year also dwindled. And supply chain challenges have capped companies' abilities to keep up with consumer demand. 

    "The deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter was led by a slowdown in consumer spending. A resurgence of COVID-19 cases resulted in new restrictions and delays in the reopening of establishments in some parts of the country," the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its release on Thursday. "In the third quarter, government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased."

    Consumption, the largest component of U.S. GDP comprising about two-thirds of overall economic activity, slowed to a 1.6% rate in the third quarter, also marking the weakest pace since the second quarter of 2020.

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