The Atlanta Fed's initial GDPNow model for Q4 comes in at +6.6%; that compares with the U.S. Commerce Department's Q3 GDP growth estimate of 2%, which was 1.8 percentage point above the Atlanta Fed's final GDPNow model.
- Consumer spending is estimated to grow at 4.9% in Q4.
- The latest data shows consumers increased their spending on services (think health care and restaurants), up 0.4% in September, more than they did on goods, up 0.1%. Increased spending on nondurable goods, chiefly food, beverages and pharmaceuticals, offset a decrease in spending on durable goods, led by vehicles and parts.
- Atlanta Fed notes that GDPNow model is solely based on the mathematical results. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released.
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