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Thursday, September 16, 2021

Retail sales unexpectedly rise 0.7% in August, recovering from July slump

  • August Retail Sales: +0.7% M/M vs. -0.8% consensus and -1.8% prior (revised from -1.1%).
  • Total sales for the June-August 2021 period increased 16.3% from the same period a year ago.
  • Retail trade sales rose 0.8% from July and 13.1% Y/Y, with clothing and clothing accessories stores up 38.8% from August 2020; gasoline stations jumped 35.7% Y/Y.
  • Core Retail Sales: +1.8% M/M vs. -0.1% consensus and -1.0% prior (revised from 0.4%).
  • Ex-Auto & Gas: +2.0% M/M vs. -0.3% consensus and -1.4% prior (revised from -0.7%).
  • Economist Mohamed El-Erian, adviser to Allianz, points out that government bond yields move up on the news as "along with continued indications of supply chain disruptions and wage pressures, this will re-energize taper talk."
  • Meanwhile, RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas comments: "Retail Sales: always lots of noise & that is evident in the data as is a big back-to-school impact."

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