New York Fed survey signals consumer expectations continue to improve in July

• U.S. consumer expectations for year-ahead earnings, as well as prospects of finding a job, increased "sharply" in July, according to the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations.
• Median one-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.8% in July, while median three-year inflation expectations increased slightly to 3.7% from 3.6% in June, the highest reading since August 2013, according to the report.
• Median one-year earnings growth expectations climbed 0.3 percentage points in July to 2.9%, its fourth consecutive increase and a new series high. That's primarily driven by respondents with no more than a high school degree with annual incomes under $50K.
• Median expected growth in household income and spending, though, both decreased by 0.1 percentage point, with spending expectations slipping from its series high of 5.2% in June.
• Mean unemployment expectations — or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher a year from now — increased by 1.0 percentage point to 31.7%.
• Still, consumers seem more confident about their own employment prospects as the mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next year rose to 57% from 54.2% in the prior month, the fourth consecutive M/M increase and the highest level since February 2020.
• The Conference Board's July Consumer Confidence Index  reached its highest level since before the pandemic

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