The Business News Week Ahead

An extremely heavy weak will be punctuated at mid-week by a Federal Reserve policy meeting; though no details of actual tapering are expected, talk of tapering in the announcement is a reasonable expectation. First estimates for second quarter GDP will also punctuate the week, beginning on Tuesday with South Korea, then Thursday with the US followed on Friday with reports from France, Germany, Italy and the Eurozone: all are expected to show sizable if not substantial growth. Canadian GDP for the month of May will be posted on Friday but here contraction is expected. Inflation data will open Wednesday with Australia's second-quarter CPI and Canada's CPI for June. First estimates of July consumer prices will be posted Friday by France and Italy. US inflation news will be lagging data: the employment cost index, in data for the second quarter, and PCE inflation data in the personal income and outlays report which will be for the month of June. Germany will offer an early look at employment conditions in June with the unemployment rate posted on Thursday, followed by weekly jobless claims from the US which unexpectedly shot higher in the prior week. Japan will post its unemployment data on Friday for the month of June which in May also jumped unexpectedly higher. Japanese retail sales data for June will be posted Friday with other consumer updates limited to US consumer confidence on Tuesday, where a turn backward is expected, and Germany's GfK consumer climate where improvement is likewise not expected. Italy's confidence report on Wednesday will include both consumer as well as business updates, the latter category to open the week with Germany's Ifo report on Monday to be followed by the Eurozone's economic sentiment report on Thursday. Definitive data on the manufacturing sector will open with US durable goods orders on Tuesday, where mixed results are expected, followed on Friday with an industrial production report from Japan. Other reports to watch will be new home sales from the US on Monday, June's first look at US goods trade on Wednesday, and Switzerland's leading indicator on Friday. And closing the week on Saturday is perhaps a wild card when it comes to market-moving economic data: China's CFLP manufacturing PMI where another marginally positive report is expected.