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Wednesday, June 2, 2021

U.S. economy recovery quickens in April and May: Fed's Beige Book

  • The overall national economy expanded at a moderate pace from early April to late May, a somewhat faster rate than the prior reporting period, according to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book.
  • "Several districts" pointed to some opposing forces: Vaccine rates increased and social distancing measures relaxed, but supply chain disruptions were felt as well.
  • For example, automobile and light truck sales were constrained by tight inventories. As previously reported, automakers have had to cut back on production due to a shortage of computer chips that go into the vehicles.
  • Overall, factory output increased even with the supply chain challenges.
  • "Manufacturers reported that widespread shortages of materials and labor along with delivery delays made it difficult to get products to customers," the report said
  • Homebuilders said demand outstripped their capacity to build.
  • Demand for transportation services, including at ports, was "exceptionally strong."
  • In New York City, hotel occupancy rates exceeded 50% for the first time since the pandemic. The city has waived the hotel occupancy tax for Q3 of this year, so that should fare well for hotels there (added at 2:18 PM ET).
  • And, for banks, lending volumes rose "modestly," with gains in both household and business loans.
  • As has been widely reported, many employers said the lack of job candidates prevented some businesses from increasing output.
  • "Overall, wage growth was moderate, and a growing number of firms offered signing bonuses and increased starting wages to attract and retain workers."
  • The Fed's business contact expect to continue facing cost increases and charge higher prices in coming months.
  • By region, the New York regional economy continued growing at a strong pace, Minneapolis saw "robust" demand, and Cleveland area business activity "quickened."
  • We'll get a better measure of labor market developments, on a national scale, on Friday with the May jobs report.

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