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Friday, June 25, 2021

Consumer sentiment cools a little from earlier June print

  • University of Michigan June Consumer Sentiment 85.5 vs. 86.5 consensus and 86.4 prior.
  • The print, the second-highest since the start of the pandemic, is still higher than the 82.9 reading in May 2021 and is 9.5% higher than a year ago.
  • All of the June gain was among households with incomes above $100K, and mainly a result of views on future economic prospects, said Richard Curtain, Surveys of Consumers chief economist.
  • Consumers' views on inflation are also moderating some. "Not only did year-ahead inflation expectations fall slightly to 4.2% in June from May's decade peak of 4.6%, consumers also believed that the price surges will mostly be temporary," Curtain said.
  • Current Economic Conditions: 88.6 vs. 90.7 expected and 90.6 prior.
  • Index of Consumer Expectations: 83.5 vs. 83.8 expected and 83.8 prior.
  • Inflation expectations: 4.2% vs. 4.0% expected and 4.6% in May.
  • Another interesting observation in the report: "The growing strength in the economy meant that nearly three-quarters of all consumers expected rising interest rates during the year ahead, the highest proportion since 2018 when the economy was near its last peak."
  • Consumers still see risks from COVID variants as "appreciable," Curtain added.

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