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Wednesday, October 7, 2020

FOMC assumed more fiscal stimulus this year

Federal Open Market Committee members were pricing in additional stimulus from Congress when they assessed the economic outlook at the September meeting.

In the staff projections, the forecast "assumed the enactment of some additional fiscal policy support this year; without that additional policy action, the pace of the economic recovery would likely be slower," minutes of the meeting said.

Participants judged "if future fiscal support was significantly smaller or arrived significantly later than they expected, the pace of the recovery could be slower than anticipated."

In addition, "a number of participants judged that the absence of further fiscal support would exacerbate economic hardships in minority and lower-income communities", but "a couple of participants saw an upside risk that further fiscal stimulus could be larger than anticipated, though it might come later than had been expected.".

At the first meeting with the Fed's new inflation guidelines, a "couple of participants" said they "preferred forward guidance in which the target range for the federal funds rate remained at the ELB (effective lower bound) until inflation had moved above 2 percent for some time" to "demonstrate the Committee's commitment to achieve outcomes in which inflation averages 2 percent over time."

"Several participants noted that while they agreed it was appropriate to incorporate key elements of the consensus statement into the postmeeting statement, they preferred to retain forward guidance similar to that provided in recent FOMC statements."

Some participants called for better communication about asset purchases in future meetings.


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