Philly Fed Outlook +24.1 in July

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to firms responding to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments showed positive readings for the second consecutive month, coinciding with the phased reopening of the economy in our region. The employment index reached positive territory for the first time since March. Although future indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments declined from last month’s readings, the indexes remained elevated, suggesting that the firms expect overall growth over the next six months.

Most Current Indicators Are Positive

The diffusion index for current activity edged down 3 points to 24.1 in July, its second consecutive positive reading after reaching long-term lows in the spring. The percentage of firms reporting increases (45 percent) this month exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (21 percent). The index for new orders rose from 16.7 to 23.0. Nearly 47 percent of the firms reported increases this month, while 24 percent reported decreases. The current shipments index fell 10 points to 15.3 in July. Unfilled orders rose 4 points to 3.9, while delivery times fell 7 points to -6.4, suggesting shorter delivery times.