Leading indicators rebound, but trouble lingers

Initial shock to the economy may be behind us, but recovery path remains highly uncertain

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for theU.S. increased 2.8 percent in May to 99.8 (2016 = 100), following a 6.1 percent decline in April, and a 7.5 percent decline in March.

“In May, the US LEI showed a partial recovery from its sharp decline over the previous three months, as economic activity began to pick up again,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The relative improvement in unemployment insurance claims is responsible for about two-thirds of the gain in the index. The improvements in labor markets, housing permits, and stock prices also buoyed the LEI, but new orders in manufacturing, consumers’ outlook on the economy, and the Leading Credit Index™ still point to weak economic conditions. The breadth and depth of the decline in the LEI between February and April suggest the economy at large will remain in recession territory in the near term.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 1.1 percent in May to 95.3 (2016 = 100), following a 10.4 percent decline in April and a 2.2 percent decline in March.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. declined 1.9 percent in May to 111.4 (2016 = 100), following a 1.7 percent increase in April, and a 2.4 percent increase in March.