Consumer expectations wilt in April

The COVID-19 pandemic deflates consumer expectations in the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, with many metrics reaching record lows (or highs) since the survey began in 2013.

Median household income growth expectations dropped to 1.9% in April, reaching a new series low; 21.9% of respondents expect household income to decline over the next year.

Median household spending growth expectations fell 0.1 percentage point to 2.2% last month, another new series low.

Consumers are also less hopeful about access to credit — 48.0% of respondents expect credit will be harder to access vs. 38.8% in March.

The perceived probability of losing one's job in the next year reached a new series high of 20.9% in April, up 2.4 pp from March, which notched the previous record high.

Conversely, the mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months (if the respondent lost their job) sank 6.1 pp to 47.0% in April, the largest M/M decline since the survey started.

For the first time since the survey began, the median one-year ahead expected change in home prices dropped to 0% in April, with 44.2% of respondents expecting home prices to decline over the coming year.

Median inflation expectations increased in April by 0.1 pp at the one-year horizon to 2.6% and by 0.2 pp at the three-year horizon to 2.6%.