Consumer expectations swoon as coronavirus takes hold

The New York Fed's March Survey of Consumer Expectations starts to show that COVID-19 is weighing on consumers' minds.

The March survey, which was fielded between March 2 and 31, records a substantial deterioration in financial and economic expectations, including sharp declines in household income and spending growth expectations.

The perceived probability of losing one’s job reached 18.5%, its highest level since the survey started in June 2013.

Median household income growth expectations dropped sharply to 2.1% in March, 0.9 percentage point below its 12-month trailing average, and median household spending growth expectations sank to 2.3%, also 0.9 pp below the 12-month trailing average.

Average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months jumped to 15.1% in March, vs. the 12-month trailing average of 11.6%.