Chicago fed national activity tumbles in March

Led by declines in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –4.19 in March from +0.06 in February. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in March, and three of the four categories decreased from February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –1.47 in March from –0.20 in February. Following a period of economic expansion, an increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved down to –0.32 in March from –0.21 in February. Eighteen of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 65 made negative contributions and two made neutral contributions. Twenty-two indicators improved from February to March, while 63 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, nine made negative contributions.