Leading Economic Indicators for January up 0.8% from the December figure of 111.2

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased substantially in January. Positive contributions from most components, except for the ISM® New Orders Index and average weekly manufacturing hours, fueled the most recent improvement. In the six-month period ending January 2020, the leading economic index increased 0.1 percent (about a 0.2 percent annual rate), much slower than the growth of 0.8 percent (about a 1.6 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. However, the strengths among the leading indicators are slightly more widespread than the weaknesses.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S., a measure of current economic activity, increased slightly in January. The coincident economic index rose 0.8 percent (about a 1.7 percent annual rate) between July 2019 and January 2020, more than twice as fast as its growth of 0.3 percent (about a 0.6 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. However, the strengths among the coincident indicators have become very widespread, with all components advancing over the past six months. The lagging economic index was flat in January, while the CEI improved. As a result, the coincident-to-lagging ratio is up slightly. Real GDP expanded at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2019, the same pace as in the third quarter.