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Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Goes Negative for December

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index's reading for December signaled a weaker economy.
The index was -0.35 for December, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago which puts out the results, compared with a +0.41 reading the month before. When a reading is above -0.35, it has in the past meant the economy is expanding. 

Of the four broad categories the index is made up of, three negatively contributed.
The CFNAI takes into account 85 different indicators and 60 of those negatively contributed, the Chicago Fed said, while 25 positively contributed. More indicators deteriorated month over month than improved, the Chicago Fed said. Estimates were used for many of those indicators. 

The Chicago Fed also said its CFNAI-MA3 was -0.23 compared with -0.31 from the month before, and that its CFNAI Diffusion Index was -0.27 compared with -0.25 the month before. A CFNAI-MA3 reading better than -0.70 has meant in the past that the economy is expanding.

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