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Monday, December 16, 2019

The Business News Week Ahead

China will be out in front of the global calendar, posting November data on Monday morning for retail sales, industrial production, as well as fixed asset investment. Forecasters on net are looking for slight improvement. Initial indications on December activity will follow in Europe with a string of purchasing manager indexes on Monday morning headlined by Germany and whether its manufacturing PMI can extend its recent recovery. Of special note will be the second posting of the CIPS/PMI composite flash that will offer initial data on December and the effects, if any, going into the general election on UK activity. Tuesday's highlights will be the UK labour market report, which has been cooling, and US industrial production which has been in contraction though a big rebound is expected for November, while Wednesday will open with Japanese merchandise trade and include an announcement from the Bank of Japan. Here the BoJ's assessment of inflation will be in focus, and whether there is or isn't any "momentum" toward their long effort to lift consumer prices. Japan's CPI follows on Friday. On Thursday, Australia will post labour data and the UK posting November retail sales, while the Bank of England will issue a policy announcement where, like the BoJ, no action is expected. PCE inflation data out of the US caps off the week and forecasters are not expecting to see much improvement (note that this report will be released an hour-and-a-half later than normal, at 10:00 a.m. EST). If the PCE data come out as expected, slow but at least steady will be the theme.

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