Consumer Sentiment Continues To Recover From Tariff Scare

Consumer sentiment continues to recover from its tariff-related scare in August, at 96.8 in final November for the best score since July. Expectations lead the report, up more than 3 points to 87.3 in a gain that likely reflects confidence in future income. Not contributing to November, however, are current conditions, down 1.6 points to 111.6 in a reading that is not pointing to consumer momentum going into the holidays.

Inflation expectations are very subdued but at least aren't falling, holding steady at 2.5 percent for the year-ahead outlook and actually rising 2 tenths for the 5-year outlook which is also back at 2.5 percent. Note that the 2.5 percent year-ahead rate matched Econoday's consensus.

Impeachment proceedings have yet to skew results, but the report does note increasing polarization among the sample, with one side anticipating recession and the other uninterrupted expansion. Today's results will likely lift expectations for next week's consumer confidence data from the Conference Board which have been on a deep two-month slide.