Existing Home Sales Fall, At Low End Of Consensus Range

Existing home sales fell back but from a tough comparison against a strong August, down 2.2 percent in September to a 5.380 million annual rate that is at the low end of Econoday's consensus range. Housing data on a month-to-month basis are often choppy and difficult to read which puts the emphasis on the three-month average which, for existing home sales, continues to climb, up 0.6 percent to 5.433 million for the fourth straight gain and the best reading since May last year. Year-on-year, sales in September were up 3.9 percent which is the best showing since March 2017.

Trend strength is evident in prices with the median of $272,100 up 5.9 percent on the year for the best showing since January 2018. Helping to keep prices up is low inventory on the market, steady at 1.830 million units but down 2.7 percent from this time last year. Relative to sales, inventory is at 4.1 months versus 4.0 months in August and down from 4.4 months in September last year.

The split between single-family sales and condo sales shows the former at 4.780 million and down 2.6 percent from August and the latter at 600,000 for a 1.7 percent gain from August. Regional data were balanced in September with all showing declines.

Low mortgage rates, now under 4 percent for conventional loans, are a major plus for the housing sector which continues, despite sometimes uneven monthly performances, to move ahead in what, compared to a disappointing 2018, looks to be a respectable year. Watch for new home sales on Thursday's calendar which are expected, like this report, to show a step back from August.