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Thursday, October 24, 2019

Durable-goods orders fall 1.1%, business investment shrinks again in negative sign for U.S. economy

The numbers: Orders for long-lasting or durable goods fell in September for the first time in three months and business investment shrank again, reflecting widespread weakness in manufacturing that’s acted as a drag on the broader U.S economy.

Orders dropped 1.1% last month, the government said Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.8% decline.

The decline in orders over the past 12 months, what’s more, steepened to 5.4%. That’s the biggest yearly dropoff since the middle of 2016.

Orders slipped a smaller 0.3% if cars and planes are stripped out. Transportation often exaggerates the ups and downs in orders because of lumpy demand from one month to the next.

What happened: Orders declined 1.6% for new autos and parts, almost 12% for commercial planes and 4.5% for non-aviation military goods such as tanks, ships and defense systems. Computer bookings also fell.
Boeing continues to struggle to get its grounded Max 737 jet back into the air and a decline in defense outlays was expected after a big increase in the prior month. Demand for new autos has been fairly steady, however.

Orders rose slightly for machinery and primary metals used in an array of products
A key measure of business investment, known as core orders, fell for the second month in a row. These orders have dropped 1.1% in the past three months and are running slightly below year-ago levels.

Big picture: The ongoing U.S-China trade conflict has disrupted the global economy, left business scrambling for new suppliers and dampened investment.

The result: Slower growth at home and abroad.

Central banks around the world are cutting interest rates to try to reverse the loss of momentum, but economists say speedier growth probably requires a breakthrough in U.S.-China talks and a smooth U.K. exit from the European Union. Neither outcome appears likely in the near future.

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