Consumer Confidence Index Mixed

For a second straight month, limited erosion in the consumer's assessment of the labor market held down the Conference Board's index with October coming in at 125.9 and below Econoday's consensus for 128.8. Those saying jobs currently are hard to get rose 8 tenths to 11.8 percent in a closely watched reading, however, that is offset by a 2.4 percentage point rise in those saying jobs are plentiful, now at 46.9 percent. Yet the outlook for jobs is clearly down, though only modestly so from September with fewer seeing more jobs opening up six months from now (16.9 vs 17.6 percent) and more seeing fewer jobs ahead (17.8 vs 15.4 percent).

In yet another mixed signal, expectations for future income, which are largely based on job prospects as well as the outlook for the stock market, held solid, with 21.1 percent of the sample seeing an increase for a 1.4 point monthly gain and those seeing a decrease holding steady and way back at only 6.5 percent. Bulls and bears on the stocks market, as they were in September, are just about evenly split, at 31.7 and 32.2 percent respectively. Bulls had been in front of bears by two to one as recently as July.

Business conditions are described as favorable to flat, both now and in the future with buying plans showing a welcome gain for homes but a sharp fall-off for cars which is not a good signal for retail sales. Inflation expectations in this report, in contrast to the consumer sentiment where they have fallen back to long-term lows, are steady and off lows, at 4.8 percent for a second straight month.

Today's report is more mixed than unfavorable and in line with this year's trend for this index, one that has been edging higher but marked by uneven monthly swings and at levels well below the high 130s through late last year. For Friday's employment report, the results should confirm expectations for general health but also confirm expectations, at least a bit, for slowing strength.