It's often hot or cold for Chicago's PMI sample and October, likely due
to the GM strike, was a very cold month, at 43.2 for the headline
composite index and a 4-year low. And the leading indicator among the
report's details, that is the new order index, is at a 10-year low and a
very depressed score of 37.0. Backlogs, which are at a 4-year low and
at an even more depressed 33.1, are fairing no better. But outside of
orders, weakness is less severe with production at 46.8, inventories at
47.1, and input costs still on the rise at 54.8.
Order scores in
the 30s are usually seen at times of economic crisis which this sample
may be suffering from the GM strike which, however, has been tentatively
settled in what might prove to be a major positive for November's
report.
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