Jobless Claims Drop 6K At Low End Of Consensus Range

Jobless claims never did signal the weakness in May payroll growth and they aren't signaling any weakness for June payroll growth either. New claims fell 6,000 in the June 15 week to 216,000 which is at the low end of Econoday's consensus range. The latest sample week was also the sample week for the June employment report and a comparison with the sample week of the May report is favorable showing only a marginal 4,000 rise at the headline level and a slight 1,750 decline in the 4-week averages (218,750 vs 220,500).

Continuing claims in lagging data for the June 8 week fell 37,000 to 1.662 million with this 4-week average down 5,250 to 1.679 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers holds at a very low 1.2 percent.

Today's report does hint that the abrupt slowing in May payroll growth could have been an outlier, at least based on claims and their indication that layoffs remain very low.