The Business News Week Ahead

After Jackson Hole, Fed speak will take a break in the coming week with no speeches or appearances scheduled. The most urgent data will come out on Thursday with the personal income & outlays report and an update on the core PCE price index. Acceleration is not expected for core prices in July with solid strength in consumer spending expected to steal the show for this report. Key data will also come out on Tuesday with international trade in goods for July. This will be the first input for third-quarter net exports which in the second quarter were a major positive for GDP. Released along with trade in goods will be retail inventories which have been very lean relative to retail sales and where a sizable build, in what would be a plus for third-quarter GDP, would not be a surprise. Housing data in the week will include Case-Shiller home prices, which have been soft but are expected to firm, and pending sales of existing homes which are not expected to show any lift. The week closes with the final consumer sentiment report for August which in the initial report showed no rise in year-ahead inflation expectations.

Monday

National Activity Index for July

Consensus Forecast: 0.38

Consensus Range: 0.35 to 0.40

July looks like it will prove another solid month for the national activity index. Nonfarm payrolls rose 157,000 in July with the unemployment rate coming down 1 tenth to 3.9 percent. Industrial production inched only 0.1 percent higher though manufacturing production was a bit stronger as were building permits. Econoday's consensus for the index is 0.38 vs a very strong 0.43 in June.

Dallas Fed General Activity Index for August

Consensus Forecast: 28.0

Consensus Range: 27.7 to 33.0 

Firm energy prices have been underpinning the Dallas Fed's manufacturing sample. Orders have been strong and backlogs have been rising with overheating a question for capacity utilization, delivery times, and prices. Another month of strength is expected for August, at a consensus 28.0 for the general activity index vs 32.3 and 36.5 in the prior two reports.

Tuesday

International Trade In Goods for July

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: -$69.1 billion

Consensus Range: -$72.0 to -$68.5 billion

The nation's goods deficit is expected to widen to a consensus $69.1 in July vs $67.9 billion in June (revised from an initial $68.3 billion). July's result will mark the first input for third-quarter net exports, which proved very favorable in the second quarter.

Advance Wholesale Inventories for July

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.1%

Consensus Range: -0.1% to 0.3%

Wholesale inventories are expected to rise 0.1 percent in July as they did in June. Inventories have been low relative to sales.

Case-Shiller, 20-City Adjusted Index for June

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.8%

Case-Shiller, 20-City Unadjusted Index

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 6.5%

Consensus Range: 6.4% to 6.7%

Home-price appreciation slowed sharply during the Spring selling season, at least through most of the country with the exception of the West where strength remained formidable. But another month of overall limited growth is the call for Case-Shiller data in June where the consensus gain for the 20-city adjusted index is for a third straight 0.2 percent. The unadjusted year-on-year rate is seen holding at May's 6.5 percent.

Consumer Confidence Index for August

Consensus Forecast: 126.5

Consensus Range: 124.0 to 128.0

At 126.5 for August, Econoday's consensus is calling for steady strength in the consumer confidence index which came in at 127.4 in July. Job assessments have been exceptionally strong in this report while inflation expectations have been turning higher.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for August

Consensus Forecast: 19

Consensus Range: 16 to 20 

Strong order growth in June and July points to August strength for the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index, at a consensus 19. June came in at 21 with July at 20.

Wednesday

Real GDP: 2nd Quarter, 2nd Estimate, Annualized Rate

Consensus Forecast: 4.0%

Consensus Range: 3.8% to 4.2%

Real Consumer Spending, Annualized Rate

Consensus Forecast: 3.9%

Consensus Range: 3.9% to 4.0%

GDP Price Index

Consensus Forecast: 3.0%

Consensus Range: 2.9% to 3.0%

The second estimate for second-quarter GDP is expected to come in at a 4.0 percent annualized rate vs 4.1 percent in the first estimate. Consumer spending is expected to come in at a 3.9 percent rate vs the prior estimate's 4.0 percent. The GDP price index is seen holding at 3.0 percent.

Pending Home Sales Index for July

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.0%

Consensus Range: -1.1% to 1.0%

Pending home sales are expected to come in unchanged in July after rising 0.9 percent in June. This index has on trend been accurately forecasting final resales as tracked in the existing home sales report.

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims for August 25 week

Consensus Forecast: 214,000

Consensus Range: 210,000 to 215,000

Initial claims are expected to come in at 214,000 in the August 25 week vs 210,000 in the prior week. All readings in this report are at or near historic lows and consistent with strong demand for labor.

Personal Income for July

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.4%

Consumer Spending

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.5%

PCE Price Index

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.3%

PCE Price Index

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 2.3%

Consensus Range: 2.3% to 2.4%

Core PCE Price Index

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.3%

Core PCE Price Index

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 2.0%

Consensus Range: 2.0% to 2.1%

Personal income is seen rising a solid 0.4 percent in July while consumer spending is expected to also increase 0.4 percent. The core PCE price index, which excludes both food and energy, is seen posting a modest 0.2 percent monthly rise for a year-on-year on-target gain of 2.0 percent. This year-on-year rate, which is the most closely watched of all inflation readings, hit the Fed's 2 percent goal in March before edging to 1.9 percent in subsequent reports. The consensus for the overall PCE price index is also 0.2 percent for a year-on-year rate of 2.3 percent.

Friday

Chicago PMI for August

Consensus Forecast: 63.5

Consensus Range: 61.0 to 65.0 

Easing strength at a very high level is the call for the Chicago PMI with the August consensus at 63.5 vs 65.5 in a July report when input costs an 11-year high.

Consumer Sentiment Index, Final August

Consensus Forecast: 95.3

Consensus Range: 94.0 to 96.0

Expected to hold at the preliminary score, Econoday's consensus for the final consumer sentiment index for August is expected to come in at 95.3. The preliminary report was the softest since September last year and included a sharp downshift in buying plans tied to rising prices for cars and household durables. Year-ahead inflation expectations were steady at 2.9 percent with 5-year expectations up 1 tenth to 2.5 percent.