Economics News Week Ahead

Following last week's very heavy run, the coming week's calendar is light. JOLTS takes Tuesday's spotlight updating the number of job openings, which have been exceeding those looking for a job, and also the quits rate and how confident the labor force is to look for higher paying jobs. Inflation data follow on Thursday with producer prices, where pressures on services and metals have been appearing, followed on Friday with consumer prices which have remained remarkably stable. Also on Friday the Treasury's budget statement for July will be released offering the latest on what has been a sharply widening deficit.

Tuesday

JOLTS: Job Openings for June

Consensus Forecast: 6.650 million

Consensus Range: 6.600 to 6.750 million

The number of job openings has moved ahead of the number of unemployed for the first time on record. At a consensus 6.650 million, forecasters see job openings in June edging higher from May's total of 6.638 million. The quits rate of this report has also been moving higher, suggesting that workers are growing more confident and are on the hunt for higher pay.

Consumer Credit for June

Consensus Forecast: $16.0 billion

Consensus Range: $12.5 to $17.0 billion

A smaller increase of $16.0 billion is expected for consumer credit in June, after jumping $24.6 billion in May on a sudden spike in revolving credit. An increase in non-revolving credit, tied in part to auto financing, was also strong.

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims for August 4 week

Consensus Forecast: 220,000

Consensus Range: 216,000 to 225,000

Initial jobless claims are expected to come in at 220,000 in the August 11 week vs 218,000 in the prior week. All readings in this report are at or near historic lows and consistent with strong demand for labor.

PPI-FD for July

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.3%

PPI-FD Less Food & Energy

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.3%

PPI-FD Less Food, Energy, & Trade Services

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.3%

Forecasters see steady, moderate pressure for the July producer price report which in June and May showed sharp increases at trade services (wholesalers and retailers) as well as tariff-related hikes for steel and aluminum. A 0.3 percent monthly increase is expected for the July producer price headline which would match June's rise. When excluding food and energy, prices are also expected to rise 0.3 percent while excluding food, energy and trade services, a 0.2 percent gain is expected.

Wholesale Inventories for June

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.0%

Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.0%

Wholesale inventories are expected to come in unchanged in June, in line with the previously posted advance estimate.

Inventory levels have fallen behind demand and need to rise faster.

Friday

Consumer Price Index for July

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.2%

Consumer Price Index

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 2.9%

Consensus Range: 2.9% to 3.0%

CPI Core, Less Food & Energy

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.3%

CPI Core, Less Food & Energy

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 2.3%

Consensus Range: 2.2% to 2.5%

Businesses may be increasingly passing rising costs on to their customers, yet consumer prices have so far remained stable. Forecasters see the consumer price index rising a modest 0.2 percent in July following only a 0.1 percent increase in June. The consensus for the core rate (ex-food ex-energy) is also a 0.2 percent gain. Year-on-year rates for July are seen unchanged at 2.9 percent for the overall index and unchanged at 2.3 percent for the core.

Treasury Budget for July

Consensus Forecast: -$73.5 billion

Consensus Range: -$78.0 billion to $31.4 billion

Individual tax receipts are on the rise but so is spending. The last Treasury statement in June showed a $607.1 billion deficit nine months into the government's fiscal year, up significantly from a $523.1 billion a year ago. Econoday's consensus for the July statement is a monthly deficit of $73.5 billion with the high end estimate at a surplus of $31.4 billion.