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Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Job Openings Slip Back, Still Abundant

Job openings slipped back but still remain very abundant, at 6.638 million in May vs an upward revised and record 6.840 million in April. Openings are up 16.7 percent compared to May last year and are far above hiring, at 5.754 million in May for comparatively distant 4.9 percent year-on-year gain.

Openings are not only above hirings but they are also above the 6.564 million unemployed who are actively looking for work. This inversion -- which strongly underscores lack of available capacity in the labor market -- first appeared in April and marks a first in data going back 20 years.

Of special note in today's report is another rise in the quits rate, up 1 tenth to 2.4 percent. Jerome Powell, at his FOMC press conference last month, characterized the quits rate as elevated, a sign that workers are looking for other employers and higher pay.

Job openings represent labor demand and are a complementary statistic to unemployment which represents labor supply. And their relationship is a hot topic among Federal Reserve policy makers who are raising rates to head off potential imbalances, specifically inflationary imbalances, in the labor market.

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