The Business News Week Ahead

Job openings in the JOLTS report highlight a light week for U.S. economic data that, however. will include international trade. The week opens with factory orders on Monday where a give back for aircraft looks to make for a deceptive decline  in headline growth. Attention turns to services on Tuesday with the services PMI and ISM non-manufacturing reports both expected to show strength. But it will be JOLTS that will be Tuesday's highlight with forecasters expecting job openings to well exceed the number of employed in what would be a first for the U.S. economy. Trade data follow on Wednesday and a steady deficit is the call in a report that may offer early effects from steel and aluminum tariffs. Productivity is always a source of concern and the second estimate for the first quarter also on Wednesday is not expected to show any improvement.

Monday

Factory Orders for April

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: -0.4%

Consensus Range: -1.0% to 0.3%

The durable goods report for April showed headline weakness which reflected a give back for aircraft orders and which masked solid strength especially for capital goods. Forecasters see factory orders in April slipping 0.4 percent.

Tuesday

PMI Services for May, Final

Consensus Forecast: 55.7

Consensus Range: 54.8 to 55.7

PMI services moved higher in the flash report for May, getting a boost from backlogs and showing other signs of capacity stress as well including a rise in input costs. The index is expected to hold at the 55.7 flash reading.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for May

Consensus Forecast: 58.0

Consensus Range: 56.8 to 59.0

Acceleration is the call for the ISM non-manufacturing index which fell back in April due to a shortening in delivery times, one that may have proven temporary given continuing reports of substantial delays in other data. New orders were very strong in April and point to general strength for the May report. Forecasters see the index rising 1.2 points to 58.0.

JOLTS: Job Openings for April

Consensus Forecast: 6.543 million

Consensus Range: 6.200 to 6.600 million

Job openings, at a consensus 6.543 million in April, are expected to hold near March's 6.550 million total and emerge above the number of employed actively looking for work, which for comparison totaled 6.346 million in April (6.065 million was posted for May). Openings in this report have been well ahead of hirings suggesting that employers aren't finding sufficient candidates.

Wednesday

International Trade Balance for April

Consensus Forecast: -$49.0 billion

Consensus Range: -$52.5 to -$47.6 billion

The international trade deficit for goods and services is expected to hold steady in April at $49.0 billion in line with little change in advance data on the goods side of the report. The advance data showed a 0.5 percent decline in imports but also a 0.5 percent decline for exports. Tariff effects on metals are a possible wildcard for the April report.

Nonfarm Productivity, 2nd Estimate, 1st Quarter

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 0.7%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.8%

Unit Labor Costs

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 2.8%

Consensus Range: 2.7% to 2.9%

There was little change in the second estimate of first-quarter GDP and little change is the expectation for the second estimate of first-quarter productivity, at 0.7 percent growth to match the first estimate with unit labor costs at 2.8 percent vs the first estimate's 2.7 percent. Output slowed in the first quarter but so did hours worked while compensation rose.

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims for June 2 week

Consensus Forecast: 225,000

Consensus Range: 220,000 to 225,000

Initial claims are expected to come in at 225,000 in the June 2 week in what would be a 4,000 increase from 221,000 in the prior week. Low readings in this report are consistent with strong demand for labor.

Consumer Credit for April

Consensus Forecast: $13.5 billion

Consensus Range: $11.0 to $16.0 billion

Lack of growth in revolving credit has been holding back consumer credit which is expected to post a moderate April gain of $13.5 billion. Nonrevolving credit has been on the rise though a flat month for vehicle sales may hold this component back in April.

Friday

Wholesale Inventories for April

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.1%

Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.4%

Wholesale inventories are expected to rise 0.1 percent in April and roughly in line with the month's advance data which showed no change. Despite a flat April, inventories have been trending higher in this report in line with sales.