Job openings in the JOLTS report highlight a light
week for U.S. economic data that, however. will include international
trade. The week opens with factory orders on Monday where a give back
for aircraft looks to make for a deceptive decline in headline
growth. Attention turns to services on Tuesday with the services PMI and
ISM non-manufacturing reports both expected to show strength. But it
will be JOLTS that will be Tuesday's highlight with forecasters
expecting job openings to well exceed the number of employed in what
would be a first for the U.S. economy. Trade data follow on Wednesday
and a steady deficit is the call in a report that may offer early
effects from steel and aluminum tariffs. Productivity is always a
source of concern and the second estimate for the first quarter also on
Wednesday is not expected to show any improvement.
Monday
Factory Orders for April
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: -0.4%
Consensus Range: -1.0% to 0.3%
The durable goods report for April showed headline
weakness which reflected a give back for aircraft orders and which
masked solid strength especially for capital goods. Forecasters see factory orders in April slipping 0.4 percent.
Tuesday
PMI Services for May, Final
Consensus Forecast: 55.7
Consensus Range: 54.8 to 55.7
PMI services moved higher in the
flash report for May, getting a boost from backlogs and showing other
signs of capacity stress as well including a rise in input costs. The
index is expected to hold at the 55.7 flash reading.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for May
Consensus Forecast: 58.0
Consensus Range: 56.8 to 59.0
Acceleration is the call for the ISM non-manufacturing index which
fell back in April due to a shortening in delivery times, one that may
have proven temporary given continuing reports of substantial delays
in other data. New orders were very strong in April and point to
general strength for the May report. Forecasters see the index rising
1.2 points to 58.0.
JOLTS: Job Openings for April
Consensus Forecast: 6.543 million
Consensus Range: 6.200 to 6.600 million
Job openings, at a consensus
6.543 million in April, are expected to hold near March's 6.550 million
total and emerge above the number of employed actively looking for
work, which for comparison totaled 6.346 million in April (6.065 million
was posted for May). Openings in this report have been well ahead of
hirings suggesting that employers aren't finding sufficient candidates.
Wednesday
International Trade Balance for April
Consensus Forecast: -$49.0 billion
Consensus Range: -$52.5 to -$47.6 billion
The international trade deficit for goods and services
is expected to hold steady in April at $49.0 billion in line with
little change in advance data on the goods side of the report. The
advance data showed a 0.5 percent decline in imports but also a 0.5
percent decline for exports. Tariff effects on metals are a possible
wildcard for the April report.
Nonfarm Productivity, 2nd Estimate, 1st Quarter
Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 0.7%
Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.8%
Unit Labor Costs
Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 2.8%
Consensus Range: 2.7% to 2.9%
There was little change in the second estimate of first-quarter GDP and little change is the expectation for the second estimate of first-quarter productivity, at 0.7 percent growth to match the first estimate with unit labor costs
at 2.8 percent vs the first estimate's 2.7 percent. Output slowed in
the first quarter but so did hours worked while compensation rose.
Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims for June 2 week
Consensus Forecast: 225,000
Consensus Range: 220,000 to 225,000
Initial claims are expected to
come in at 225,000 in the June 2 week in what would be a 4,000 increase
from 221,000 in the prior week. Low readings in this report are
consistent with strong demand for labor.
Consumer Credit for April
Consensus Forecast: $13.5 billion
Consensus Range: $11.0 to $16.0 billion
Lack of growth in revolving credit has been holding
back consumer credit which is expected to post a moderate April gain
of $13.5 billion. Nonrevolving credit has been on the rise though a
flat month for vehicle sales may hold this component back in April.
Friday
Wholesale Inventories for April
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.1%
Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.4%
Wholesale inventories are expected
to rise 0.1 percent in April and roughly in line with the month's
advance data which showed no change. Despite a flat April, inventories
have been trending higher in this report in line with sales.
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