The Business News Week Ahead

The consumer was the no-show story of the first quarter and getting the week rolling on Tuesday will be the first look at second-quarter consumer spending -- April retail sales. Expectations are moderate as strength in core sales and price gains for gas sales are expected to be held back by weakness in vehicle sales. Attention then turns to a factory sector that may be accelerating though expectations are pointing to only a moderate gain for the manufacturing component of Wednesday's industrial production report and steady to easing strength for Tuesday's Empire State and Thursday's Philly Fed reports. The new home market is also in focus: home builder assessments in Tuesday's housing market index followed on Wednesday by housing starts and permits which, after surging in March, are expected to slow but only slightly in April. Capping the week will be Thursday's jobless claims data where the sample week will match the sample week of the monthly jobs report and offer another glimpse of what to expect for May employment.

Tuesday

Retail Sales for April

Consensus Forecast: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.5%

Retail Sales Ex-Autos

Consensus Forecast: 0.5%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.8%

Retail Sales Ex-Autos Ex-Gas

Consensus Forecast: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.5%

Retail Sales Control Group (Ex-Food Services, Ex-Autos, Ex-Gas, Ex-Building Materials)

Consensus Forecast: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.4%

At a moderate 0.3 percent consensus gain, April retail sales, unlike those for March, are not expected to get any boost from vehicles following the separately released falloff in the month's unit sales. A more solid 0.5 percent increase is the call for ex-auto sales which are expected to get a boost from the month's higher gas prices. When excluding both autos and gasoline, sales are seen rising 0.4 percent with control group sales, which also excludes food services and building materials, also expected to increase 0.4 percent. Consumer spending proved very soft in the first quarter and this report will mark the first spending data for the second quarter.

Empire State Index for May

Consensus Forecast: 15.5

Consensus Range: 14.0 to 19.0

The Empire State index is expected to hold steady in May at a consensus 15.5 vs 15.8 in an April report that included visible slowing in new orders and backlog orders. Outlook readings in this report fell dramatically in April in what hinted at tariff concerns.

Business Inventories for March

Consensus Forecast,  Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.6%

A moderate 0.3 percent rise is the consensus for March business inventories, a build that would be in line with underlying sales that have been slightly ahead of inventories. An unexpected reading in this report, whether high or low, could effect expectations for the second estimate of first-quarter GDP which, in the first estimate, got a sizable lift from inventories.

Housing Market Index for May

Consensus Forecast: 70

Consensus Range: 69 to 71 

Home-builder confidence has been leveling in contrast to new home sales and permits which are both accelerating. Econoday's consensus calls for slightly strength for the housing market index, at 70 in May vs April's 69 which was a 5-month low.

Wednesday

Housing Starts for April

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 1.325 million

Consensus Range: 1.260 to 1.350 million

Building Permits

Consensus Forecast: 1.350 million

Consensus Range: 1.325 to 1.370 million

Slight step backs are the expectations for both housing starts and permits which, boosted by a turn higher for multi-unit activity, rose very sharply in March. April's consensus for starts is a 1.325 million annualized rate vs March's 1.319 million with permits seen at 1.350 vs 1.379 million (revised from an initial 1.354 million).

Industrial Production for April

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.6%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.9%         

Manufacturing Production

Consensus Forecast,  Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 1.0%

Capacity Utilization Rate

Consensus Forecast: 78.4%

Consensus Range: 78.2% to 78.5%

Mining has been the strength of the industrial production report which is expected to rise a solid 0.6 percent in April. Manufacturing has been uneven in this report though a respectable 0.3 percent gain is April's call. Pressures on capacity utilization have until now been limited though forecasters are looking for a sizable 4 tenth gain to 78.4 percent.

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims for May 12 week

Consensus Forecast: 217,000

Consensus Range: 208,000 to 230,000

Initial claims are expected to come in at 217,000 in the May 12 week which is also the sample week for the monthly employment report. This would be a 6,000 increase from 211,000 in the prior week but would still compare very favorably with 231,500 in the sample week for the April employment report. Low readings in this report are consistent with strong demand for labor.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for May

Consensus Forecast: 22.0

Consensus Range: 18.5 to 26.0

The consensus forecast is 22.0 for May's Philly Fed which in April, belying the 23.2 headline, showed sharp slowing for both new orders and backlogs. But prior rates of order growth were very strong in this report; stresses on current production have been evident with both delivery delays and the workweek near 50-year records and both input and selling prices at expansion highs.

Index of Leading Economic Indicators for April

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%

Consensus Range: -0.1% to 0.4%

The index of leading economic indicators had been posting a run of very strong readings though the gain back in March, at 0.3 percent, was held down by a temporary rise in unemployment claims and a dip in the factory workweek. But with the stock market soft and ISM orders slipping forecasters aren't looking for any acceleration in April with a 0.3 percent gain the consensus.