The consumer was the no-show story of the first
quarter and getting the week rolling on Tuesday will be the first look
at second-quarter consumer spending -- April retail sales. Expectations
are moderate as strength in core sales and price gains for gas sales
are expected to be held back by weakness in vehicle sales. Attention
then turns to a factory sector that may be accelerating though
expectations are pointing to only a moderate gain for the manufacturing
component of Wednesday's industrial production report and steady to
easing strength for Tuesday's Empire State and Thursday's Philly Fed
reports. The new home market is also in focus: home builder assessments
in Tuesday's housing market index followed on Wednesday by housing
starts and permits which, after surging in March, are expected to slow
but only slightly in April. Capping the week will be Thursday's jobless
claims data where the sample week will match the sample week of the
monthly jobs report and offer another glimpse of what to expect for May
employment.
Tuesday
Retail Sales for April
Consensus Forecast: 0.3%
Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.5%
Retail Sales Ex-Autos
Consensus Forecast: 0.5%
Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.8%
Retail Sales Ex-Autos Ex-Gas
Consensus Forecast: 0.4%
Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.5%
Retail Sales Control Group (Ex-Food Services, Ex-Autos, Ex-Gas, Ex-Building Materials)
Consensus Forecast: 0.4%
Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.4%
At a moderate 0.3 percent consensus gain, April retail sales,
unlike those for March, are not expected to get any boost from
vehicles following the separately released falloff in the month's unit
sales. A more solid 0.5 percent increase is the call for ex-auto sales which are expected to get a boost from the month's higher gas prices. When excluding both autos and gasoline, sales are seen rising 0.4 percent with control group sales,
which also excludes food services and building materials, also
expected to increase 0.4 percent. Consumer spending proved very soft in
the first quarter and this report will mark the first spending data for
the second quarter.
Empire State Index for May
Consensus Forecast: 15.5
Consensus Range: 14.0 to 19.0
The Empire State index is
expected to hold steady in May at a consensus 15.5 vs 15.8 in an April
report that included visible slowing in new orders and backlog orders.
Outlook readings in this report fell dramatically in April in what
hinted at tariff concerns.
Business Inventories for March
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%
Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.6%
A moderate 0.3 percent rise is the consensus for March business inventories,
a build that would be in line with underlying sales that have been
slightly ahead of inventories. An unexpected reading in this report,
whether high or low, could effect expectations for the second estimate
of first-quarter GDP which, in the first estimate, got a sizable lift
from inventories.
Housing Market Index for May
Consensus Forecast: 70
Consensus Range: 69 to 71
Home-builder confidence has been leveling in
contrast to new home sales and permits which are both accelerating.
Econoday's consensus calls for slightly strength for the housing market index, at 70 in May vs April's 69 which was a 5-month low.
Wednesday
Housing Starts for April
Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 1.325 million
Consensus Range: 1.260 to 1.350 million
Building Permits
Consensus Forecast: 1.350 million
Consensus Range: 1.325 to 1.370 million
Slight step backs are the expectations for both
housing starts and permits which, boosted by a turn higher for
multi-unit activity, rose very sharply in March. April's consensus for starts is a 1.325 million annualized rate vs March's 1.319 million with permits seen at 1.350 vs 1.379 million (revised from an initial 1.354 million).
Industrial Production for April
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.6%
Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.9%
Manufacturing Production
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%
Consensus Range: 0.1% to 1.0%
Capacity Utilization Rate
Consensus Forecast: 78.4%
Consensus Range: 78.2% to 78.5%
Mining has been the strength of the industrial production report which is expected to rise a solid 0.6 percent in April. Manufacturing has been uneven in this report though a respectable 0.3 percent gain is April's call. Pressures on capacity utilization have until now been limited though forecasters are looking for a sizable 4 tenth gain to 78.4 percent.
Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims for May 12 week
Consensus Forecast: 217,000
Consensus Range: 208,000 to 230,000
Initial claims are expected to
come in at 217,000 in the May 12 week which is also the sample week for
the monthly employment report. This would be a 6,000 increase from
211,000 in the prior week but would still compare very favorably with
231,500 in the sample week for the April employment report. Low
readings in this report are consistent with strong demand for labor.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for May
Consensus Forecast: 22.0
Consensus Range: 18.5 to 26.0
The consensus forecast is 22.0 for May's Philly Fed
which in April, belying the 23.2 headline, showed sharp slowing for
both new orders and backlogs. But prior rates of order growth were very
strong in this report; stresses on current production have been
evident with both delivery delays and the workweek near 50-year records
and both input and selling prices at expansion highs.
Index of Leading Economic Indicators for April
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%
Consensus Range: -0.1% to 0.4%
The index of leading economic indicators
had been posting a run of very strong readings though the gain back in
March, at 0.3 percent, was held down by a temporary rise in
unemployment claims and a dip in the factory workweek. But with the
stock market soft and ISM orders slipping forecasters aren't looking
for any acceleration in April with a 0.3 percent gain the consensus.
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