The Business News Week Ahead

First-quarter GDP on Friday will be the highlight of a week that opens with housing data: existing home sales on Monday followed on Tuesday by new home sales and both Case-Shiller and FHFA price data. Home sales have been flat so far this year but not prices which have been getting a boost from low supply on the market. Factory data include Richmond Fed on Tuesday where the raw materials component may offer new clues on tariff effects with durable goods on Thursday expected to show continuing and important strength. Thursday data on goods trade and on inventories will offer key inputs into Friday's GDP report where a more moderate quarter is the expectation.

Monday

National Activity Index for March

Consensus Forecast: 0.29

Consensus Range: 0.20 to 0.50

Retail sales were solid in March as were building permits as well as mining and utility production which will all be positives for the national activity index. Not much of a positive, however, was a marginal rise in manufacturing production nor the slim 103,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls which will both hold back the month's results. The index is expected to come in at 0.29 vs February's very strong 0.88.

PMI Composite for April, Flash

Consensus Forecast: 54.6

Consensus Range: 53.6 to 54.8

PMI Manufacturing

Consensus Forecast: 55.0

Consensus Range: 54.3 to 56.0

PMI Services

Consensus Forecast: 54.5

Consensus Range: 53.5 to 54.8

The PMIs have been running at moderately strong rates in the mid-50s led by manufacturing but including solid strength for services. Steel tariffs could affect both price and inventory results and may show up in the report's comments. The consensus for the April flash composite is 54.6 with manufacturing seen at 55.0 and services at 54.5.

Existing Home Sales for March

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 5.528 million

Consensus Range: 5.390 to 5.800 million

At a consensus decline from a 5.540 million annualized rate to a 5.528 rate, existing home sales in March are not expected to extend February's bounce higher. Supply on the market has been well below demand and has been lifting prices and holding down sales.

Tuesday

Case-Shiller, 20-City Adjusted Index for February

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.7%

Consensus Range: 0.5% to 0.7%

Case-Shiller, 20-City Unadjusted Index

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.3%

Case-Shiller, 20-City Unadjusted Index

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 6.2%

Consensus Range: 6.1% to 6.6%

Home price acceleration has been at a 3-1/2-year high, whether for FHFA data or the Case-Shiller 20-city adjusted index where the consensus is calling for another solid monthly gain of 0.7 percent in data for February. But the year-on-year rate is not seen moving higher, to 6.2 percent vs 6.4 percent in the prior month. The unadjusted monthly rate, at only a 0.2 percent expected gain, is a reminder that housing activity during the winter months is seasonally slow.

FHFA House Price Index for February

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.5%

Consensus Range: 0.4% to 0.8%

Growth in the FHFA house price index, which shot higher in January, is expected to slow in February to a consensus monthly gain of 0.5 percent. The year-on-year rate for this index burst over the 7 percent line in January to a 3-1/2-year high of 7.3 percent. Cities in the Pacific and Mountain states have running at or near 10 percent.

New Home Sales for March

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 630,000

Consensus Range:  610,000 to 687,000

New home sales peaked late last year but have been struggling since, held down by rising mortgage rates and limited supply. Forecasters see improvement for March, at a consensus 630,000 vs February's 618,000.

Consumer Confidence Index for April

Consensus Forecast: 127.0

Consensus Range: 123.1 to 129.0

Getting a boost from this year's tax cut, the weekly consumer comfort index and bi-monthly consumer sentiment index have been hitting expansion highs as has the monthly consumer confidence index. Consensus for April confidence is steady strength at 127.0 vs 127.7 in March.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April

Consensus Forecast: 16

Consensus Range: 14 to 20

Steady strong growth is Econoday's consensus for the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, at a consensus 16 for April vs March's 15. Watch for dislocations tied to steel tariffs including increasing prices or stockpiling in the raw materials component.

Thursday

Durable Goods Orders for March

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 1.7%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 4.0%

Durable Goods Orders, Ex-Transportation

Consensus Forecast: 0.5%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.8%

Durable Goods Orders, Core Capital Goods (Nondefense Ex-Aircraft)

Consensus Forecast: 0.5%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.9%

Giveback is not the expectation for durable goods orders which are expected to rise 1.7 percent in March following significant and broad-based strength in February. The consensus for ex-transportation orders is a 0.5 percent increase with core capital goods also expected to rise 0.5 percent.

International Trade In Goods for March

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: -$75.0 billion

Consensus Range: -$75.9 to -$74.0 billion

The goods deficit is expected to narrow to a consensus $75.0 billion in March vs $77.0 billion in February (revised from an initial $75.4 billion). March's report will offer some of the first hints, if any, on the cross-border effects of U.S. metal tariffs.

Initial Jobless Claims for April 25 week

Consensus Forecast: 230,000

Consensus Range: 225,000 to 231,000

Initial claims are expected to come in at 230,000 in the April 25 week in what would be a 2,000 rise from the prior week. Readings have been edging higher though still solidly consistent with strong demand for labor.

Wholesale Inventories for March

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.5%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.6%

Wholesale trade inventories are expected to rise 0.5 percent in March following very strong builds of 1.1 and 0.9 percent in the two prior months.

Friday

Real GDP: 1st Quarter, 1st Estimate, Annualized Rate

Consensus Forecast: 2.0%

Consensus Range: 1.3% to 2.8%

Real Consumer Spending, Annualized Rate

Consensus Forecast: 1.2%

Consensus Range: 0.7% to 2.4%

GDP Price Index

Consensus Forecast: 2.4%

Consensus Range: 2.1% to 2.5%

The first estimate for first-quarter GDP is expected to come in at a 2.0 percent annualized rate vs 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter. Residential and nonresidential investment as well as inventories look to be positives with net exports a negative. Consumer spending is expected to moderate to a 1.2 percent rate from the fourth quarter's very strong 4.0 percent. The GDP price index is seen inching higher to 2.4 percent rate.

Employment Cost Index for 1st Quarter

Consensus Forecast, Quarter-to-Quarter Change: 0.7%

Consensus Range: 0.6% to 0.8%

Modest acceleration is expected for the employment cost index which is expected to rise 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter compared to 0.6 percent in the third quarter. This report has been at expansion highs with wages and benefits both showing similar gains.

Chicago PMI for April

Consensus Forecast: 57.9

Consensus Range: 56.8 to 58.5

Little bounce back is the consensus for the Chicago PMI report, at 57.9 in April vs 57.4 in March. Capacity stress is a question for this sample as delivery times have been lengthening and skilled workers hard to find.

Consumer Sentiment Index, Final April

Consensus Forecast: 98.0

Consensus Range: 97.0 to 102.0

Based on a dip at in the mid-month preliminary release, the consumer sentiment index for final April is expected to come in at 98.0 vs March's 14-year high of 101.4. The assessment of current conditions fell back in the preliminary report as did inflation expectations.