The Business News Week Ahead

Retail sales will be out on Monday morning and the news, at least based on unit vehicle sales, looks to begin the week with strength. Starts and permits on Tuesday are also expected to be upbeat for a housing sector that's struggling while industrial production on Wednesday is expected to be soft for a factory sector that's booming. Indications of metals-related inflation will be watched for in Monday's Empire State and Thursday's Philly Fed reports while general inflation signals will be a focus of the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday. But the news of the week could come from Thursday's report on jobless claims and whether demand in the labor market is easing.

Monday

Retail Sales for March

Consensus Forecast: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.8%

Retail Sales Ex-Autos

Consensus Forecast: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.4%

Retail Sales Ex-Autos Ex-Gas

Consensus Forecast: 0.5%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.5%

Retail Sales Control Group (Ex-Food Services, Ex-Autos, Ex-Gas, Ex-Building Materials)

Consensus Forecast: 0.5%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.6%

Gasoline stations are expected to be the spoiler in what otherwise looks to be a solid retail sales report for March. A big rebound in unit vehicle sales is a very positive signal for the report with Econoday's consensus calling for a 0.4 percent headline rise with ex-auto sales less solid, at a consensus 0.2 percent. When excluding both autos and also gas where prices fell sharply in the month, forecasters see a strong 0.5 percent gain with control group sales, which also exclude gas, also at plus 0.5 percent.

Empire State Index for April

Consensus Forecast: 18.2

Consensus Range: 17.8 to 20.3

The Empire State index has been strong and easily beat Econoday's high estimate in March. Forecasters are calling for only limited give back with the April consensus at 18.2. Prices in this sample rose in March and further increases would add to inflation talk.

Business Inventories for February

Consensus Forecast,  Month-to-Month Change: 0.6%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.7%

A strong 0.6 percent rise is the expectation for February business inventories, a build that may or may not match a gain for underlying sales which in the last report proved soft. The more sizable the build in this report, the greater the contribution to GDP.

Housing Market Index for April

Consensus Forecast: 70

Consensus Range: 69 to 71 

Home-builder confidence has been solid with the April consensus for the housing market index steady at 70. Yet confidence was strongest in December and January when customer traffic, which has since eased, proved heavy.

Tuesday

Housing Starts for March

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 1.269 million

Consensus Range: 1.245 to 1.310 million

Building Permits

Consensus Forecast: 1.311 million

Consensus Range: 1.300 to 1.355 million

Housing starts are expected to post a solid gain in March following what was a disappointing February. But one positive in that report was strength in single-family starts where low supply has been holding down sales. The consensus for housing starts is a 1.269 million annualized rate vs February's 1.236 million with a small decline seen for permits, at 1.311 vs 1.321 million in February (revised from an initial 1.298 million).

Industrial Production for March

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.7%         

Manufacturing Production

Consensus Forecast,  Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.6%

Capacity Utilization Rate

Consensus Forecast: 78.0%

Consensus Range: 77.8% to 78.3%

Industrial production has been consistently held back by weakness in the report's manufacturing component and that is the expectation for March, at a consensus 0.4 percent gain overall but only a 0.2 percent increase for manufacturing.

Capacity utilization has been on the climb which is the expectation for March at a 3 tenths gain to 78.0 percent.

Wednesday

Beige Book

Prepared for the May 1 & 2 FOMC Meeting

All 12 districts in the March Beige Book fell back into the "modest-to-moderate" camp where they've been for the last year. Given the low base, any improvement in the latest Beige Book could raise rate-hike expectations. Inflation in the last report was described as moderate and any upgrade here, including pressure tied to metals tariffs, would also raise those expectations.

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims for April 18 week

Consensus Forecast: 226,000

Consensus Range: 225,000 to 230,000

Initial claims are not expected to increase in the April 18 week with the consensus at 226,000 in what would be 7,000 decline. The 4-week average has been edging higher though the level remains low and consistent with strong demand for labor.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April

Consensus Forecast: 20.1

Consensus Range: 18.0 to 25.0

Details of recent Philly Fed reports have been among the strongest in the report's 50-year history especially for the two most fundamental readings of all: new orders and backlogs. Econoday's April consensus for the headline index is 20.1 in what would be little changed from March's 22.3.

Index of Leading Economic Indicators for March

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.3%

March's call for the LEI is a modest 0.2 percent gain which would follow a long run of unusual strength. Weakness from the stock market and the factory workweek will be likely negatives in the March report.