Empire State Manufacturing Report Heats Up

Empire State is back on fire, coming in at 22.5 for March vs a consensus for 15.0 and a high estimate of 16.0. Like the Philly Fed which was also released this morning, new orders and backlogs are unusually strong in this sample, at 16.8 for a 3.3 point gain and 12.7 for a respective 7.8 point gain. And like Philly Fed, employment is up, delivery times are slowing, and prices are hot. Also like Philly Fed, this sample sees their selling prices rising sharply in the months ahead.

Small sample surveys have been sending record strong signals for the past year with actual government data showing much less strength, though tomorrow's industrial production report, which is part of the actual data, is expected to move higher.