The Business Week Ahead

A light holiday week is concentrated entirely on Wednesday and Thursday. Existing home sales will be posted Wednesday morning and are expected to extend their uneven climb, but it will be Wednesday afternoon and the release of FOMC minutes that will be the week's highlight. The minutes cover the meeting in January when the Fed raised their assessment of inflation in a move that was soon followed by the upending of the stock market. Thursday will include jobless claims and also the index of leading economic indicators which may ironically get a lift from the stock market that, despite the sell-off, still ended last month with a strong gain.

Wednesday

PMI Composite for February, Flash

Consensus Forecast: 54.0

Consensus Range: 51.9 to 54.1

PMI Manufacturing

Consensus Forecast: 55.0

Consensus Range: 53.6 to 55.7

PMI Services

Consensus Forecast: 53.5

Consensus Range: 51.4 to 53.7

Services were behind January's slowing in the PMI composite but even here production was still solid. The consensus for February's composite is 54.0 vs 53.8 in January with February services seen at 53.5 and manufacturing at 55.0.

Existing Home Sales for January

Consensus Forecast, Annualized Rate: 5.650 million

Consensus Range: 5.530 to 5.730 million

Existing home sales have been choppy but did finish 2017 on the uptrend. But the number of homes for sale are at a19-year low which should limit January's sales results. Against December's 5.570 million annualized rate, a 5.650 million rate is January's consensus.

FOMC Minutes

Covering the January 30-31 Meeting

FOMC members turned the inflation screw one notch in their January statement, saying plainly they expect inflation to move up and stabilize around 2 percent this year. Closely watched in the minutes will be the debate on inflation and especially wage pressures and also any hints whether members, having already set expectations for three rate hikes this year, were discussing the possibility of a fourth.

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims for February 17 week

Consensus Forecast: 230,000

Consensus Range: 227,000 to 235,000

Initial claims are expected to come in at 230,000 in the February 17 week which would be unchanged from the prior week. Claims have been low and consistent with minimal layoffs and strong demand for labor.

Index of Leading Economic Indicators for January

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.6%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.9%

Despite all the turbulence, January was still a positive for the stock market which looks to contribute solidly to the month's index of leading economic indicators. Extraordinary strength in ISM new orders will be a key positive as will the month's decline in jobless claims. January's call for the LEI is a very strong 0.6 percent gain.

Kansas City Manufacturing Index for February

Consensus Forecast: 16.5

Consensus Range: 14.0 to 18.0

The Kansas City manufacturing report, like other regional reports, has held steady and strong, at a composite score of 16 in January with February's consensus at 16.5. New orders and backlogs were both very strong in January.