The Business Week Ahead

After two weeks of an unusually heavy release schedule, the coming week's slate is light and led off on Monday by two indications on the service sector, Markit and ISM, both of which have been showing easing strength. Tuesday is the heaviest day of the week, opening with the monthly trade report, where a deepening deficit is the call, and including JOLTS data and the latest on job openings which have been slowing. Wednesday's highlight will be consumer credit which will update credit-card use followed on Thursday with jobless claims, which may have now stabilized, and on Friday by wholesale trade where the need to build inventories is a hidden plus for the first quarter.

Monday

PMI Services for January, Final

Consensus Forecast: 53.3

Consensus Range: 53.3 to 53.5

PMI services proved soft at the headline level, held down by soft output and coming in under expectations at 53.3 for the January flash. Yet details were solid including acceleration for both new orders and employment and also traction for selling prices. Econoday's consensus for the January final is the same as the flash, at 53.3.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for January

Consensus Forecast: 56.2

Consensus Range: 55.2 to 57.0

The ISM non-manufacturing index has been cooling noticeably, moving down from the 60 area in October to what was a lower-than-expected 56.0 in December (revised from an initial 55.9). But most readings were still in the mid-50s to indicate solid monthly growth including new orders at 54.2, new export orders at 56.5, and employment at 56.3. Forecasters are calling for 56.2 in January.

Tuesday

International Trade Balance for December

Consensus Forecast: -$51.9 billion

Consensus Range: -$52.5 billion to -$51.2 billion

The international trade deficit is expected to widen sharply in December to $51.9 billion from November's already steep deficit of $50.5 billion. Advance data on the goods portion of this report showed widening in December as a rise in imports offset and overshadowed what was a very good showing for exports.

JOLTS: Job Openings for December

Consensus Forecast: 5.900 million

Consensus Range: 5.900 to 5.980 million

Job openings are high but did slip 0.8 percent to 5.879 million in the last JOLTS report for November. Hires also fell, down 1.9 percent to 5.488 million. Openings have been moving lower after peaking at 6.140 million in July, while hires, despite November's dip, have been picking up and are still near their expansion high which was set in October at 5.592 million. Econoday's consensus for December job openings is for a slight gain to 5.900 million.

Wednesday

Consumer Credit for December

Consensus Forecast: $20.0 billion

Consensus Range: $17.9 billion to $22.0 billion

Consumers are not only been dipping into their savings, they've also been drawing on their credit cards to an increasing degree as revolving credit rose $11.2 billion in November and made a sizable contribution to total credit outstanding which climbed $28 billion for a 17-year high. November's rise in revolving credit was the second largest of the post-2008 expansion and hints at less reluctance among consumers to run up credit-card debt. December's total consumer credit outstanding is expected to rise $20.0 billion.

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims for February 3 week

Consensus Forecast: 235,000

Consensus Range: 232,000 to 235,000

After a long spell of volatility, initial claims are expected to come in at 235,000 in the February 3 week in what, after 230,000 and 231,000 in the prior two weeks, would extend the lowest and most stable run since August. Volatile or not, jobless claims have been very low in confirmation that labor demand is strong.

Friday

Wholesale Inventories for December

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: -0.4% to 0.2%

December wholesale trade inventories are expected to rise 0.2 percent in line with advance data which also showed a 0.2 percent build. Inventory build -- due to strong demand -- slowed in the fourth quarter in what held down GDP, yet this points to the need for restocking in the first quarter and gains in turn for production and employment.