Small Business Regains Optimism

Small business owners regained their high optimism in January following December's retreat from November's 13-year highs, with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rising 2.0 points 106.9. Leading the monthly index higher to beat consensus estimates was a 5-point gain to a net 32 percent in the view that now is a good time to expand, the highest level for this component in the history of the NFIB survey.

Six of the ten components of the index posted increases, with earnings trends registering the greatest improvement by jumping 11 points but remaining in negative territory and the second weakest component reading at a net minus 4 percent. Expectations that the economy will improve rose 4 points to 41 and plans to increase inventories also rose 4 points to 3. Current job openings rose 3 points to 34, as more than a third of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill. Rounding out the gainers were capital outlays, which rose 2 points to 29.

Two of the components did decline to keep the overall index from topping the 107.5 November level, including current inventories, which dropped 3 points to minus 5 as even fewer business owners felt that their stocks were too low. Also falling 3 points were expectations of higher real sales, though a solid net 25 percent of small business still expect improvement, which is one of the best readings for this component since 2007.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Forecasters are calling for a bounce back in the small business optimism index which fell sharply in December on a falloff in confidence and plans to draw down inventories. Econoday's call for January is 105.5 vs December's 104.9.