New orders rose at their best rate in a year with export orders at a year-and-a-half high. Production is also at a year high and there are signs of capacity pressures including longer lead times, rising backlogs and higher selling prices. Confidence among the sample is described as "robust."
This report, in contrast to the ISM, was more subdued through last year making January's results an auspicious beginning for the 2018 factory sector.
Recent History Of This Indicator
PMI manufacturing posted a solid 5 tenths increase in the January flash to 55.5 for the best reading in nearly three years. Export sales were a highlight of the flash report as was production, employment and overall orders. The report's sample was trying to build inventories while traction for selling prices was the strongest in more than four years, both tangible signs of strength. The consensus for January's final PMI manufacturing is unchanged from the flash, at 55.5.
PMI manufacturing posted a solid 5 tenths increase in the January flash to 55.5 for the best reading in nearly three years. Export sales were a highlight of the flash report as was production, employment and overall orders. The report's sample was trying to build inventories while traction for selling prices was the strongest in more than four years, both tangible signs of strength. The consensus for January's final PMI manufacturing is unchanged from the flash, at 55.5.
...meanwhile...
Overheating
has to be the concern of ISM's manufacturing sample where the January
index came in at 59.1, a level held down by a slowing in employment
which may signal that the sample can't find enough people to keep up
production. Production has been in the mid-60s the past 3 months which
has been slowing delivery times which are at 59.1. Both of these are
showing the strongest rates of upward change since the easy comparisons
early in the post-2008 expansion.
New orders just keep pouring in, at 65.4 in January which is also the best in nearly 10 years, and likewise for backlogs at 56.2. And there's pressure very evident in input costs which are at 72.7 for the highest level in 6-1/2 years.
Employment is the weak link in the January report, slowing nearly 4 points to what however is still 54.2 to indicate a solid monthly net increase in the sample's staffing. This report has been sending loud signals of sharp acceleration for the last year, and acceleration is now beginning to take hold in government data, at least in some of the data most notably factory orders and shipments. If the factory sector does indeed begin to overheat, we can look back at this report and also the regional factory reports led by the Philly Fed as offering the first signals.
New orders just keep pouring in, at 65.4 in January which is also the best in nearly 10 years, and likewise for backlogs at 56.2. And there's pressure very evident in input costs which are at 72.7 for the highest level in 6-1/2 years.
Employment is the weak link in the January report, slowing nearly 4 points to what however is still 54.2 to indicate a solid monthly net increase in the sample's staffing. This report has been sending loud signals of sharp acceleration for the last year, and acceleration is now beginning to take hold in government data, at least in some of the data most notably factory orders and shipments. If the factory sector does indeed begin to overheat, we can look back at this report and also the regional factory reports led by the Philly Fed as offering the first signals.
Recent History Of This Indicator:
January's consensus for the ISM manufacturing index is 58.6 vs a revised 59.3 in December (59.7 initially reported) when unusual strength across readings -- in stark contrast to the Federal Reserve's "modest" assessment of overall factory activity -- was once again the outcome. New orders, at 69.4, hit a 14-year high in December in results that included unusual strength for export orders, production, backlog orders, and employment.
January's consensus for the ISM manufacturing index is 58.6 vs a revised 59.3 in December (59.7 initially reported) when unusual strength across readings -- in stark contrast to the Federal Reserve's "modest" assessment of overall factory activity -- was once again the outcome. New orders, at 69.4, hit a 14-year high in December in results that included unusual strength for export orders, production, backlog orders, and employment.
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