Exports Up Sharply, Goods Deficit Swells

Exports came back sharply in January to feed an oversized $74.4 billion goods deficit in January, in what starts off another quarter of trouble for net exports and GDP. Exports fell 2.2 percent in the month with capital goods and industrial supplies posting sharp declines and easily offsetting a sizable gain for the smaller category of consumer goods. Imports also fell but much less so, down 0.5 percent with imports of consumer goods, which on this side of the ledger is the largest category, down 2.2 percent. Imports of capital goods were also down. Today's report points to a beginning-of-the-year slowing for cross-border trade and a slowing lopsided against exports.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The goods deficit in January is expected to narrow to a consensus -$71.3 vs -$72.3 billion in December (revised from an initial $71.6 billion). December's data, like that for November, actually pointed to very strong cross-border demand with both goods exports rising sharply and also goods imports which are by far the larger of the two. Also released with the report will be advance January data for both wholesale inventories and retail inventories which, like net exports, will also be inputs into the second estimate for fourth-quarter GDP.