Chicago PMI Shows Least Growth In 6 Months

Deceleration at a still blistering pace is February's result for the Chicago PMI which remains above 60 at 61.9. Yet the result is below Econoday's low estimate and indicates the least rate of monthly growth in six months.

New orders are also the lowest in six months but, like the headline composite, remain very strong with backlogs, however, at a 10-month low. These order readings do hint at slowing in the months ahead for this report including for production where February growth hit a 5-month low.

Hiring is likewise slowing but from January's 6-month high which again underscores the fundamental strength of this sample. Pressures on delivery times eased and inventories were worked down, again both signs of moderation. Upward pressures on input costs also eased despite what the sample reports are higher tariffs on imported steel.

The volatility of this report, one that covers both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the Chicago economy, limits its usefulness as a predictor of other data. But the takeaway is strength, though easing strength.

Consensus Outlook:
The sample for the Chicago PMI report has been reporting the greatest strength of any regional or private survey. Led by a 6-year high for employment, the Chicago PMI easily beat Econoday consensus back in January at 65.7 with February's consensus at 65.0.