The Business Week Ahead

Updates on the consumer and inflation highlight a busy week for economic data. Consumer credit on Monday will offer the latest on credit-card use while Friday's retail sales report will offer conclusive data on the holiday shopping season. Inflation data for December begin on Wednesday with import and export prices followed on Thursday by producer prices, where strength for both is the call, followed on Friday by consumer prices where strength, however, is not the call. Expectations for retail sales point to broad and solid gains.

Monday

Consumer Credit for November

Consensus Forecast: $18.0 billion

Consensus Range: $14.0 to $22.5 billion

Revolving credit has been on the rise indicating less reluctance among consumers to run up their credit cards. Revolving credit rose $8.3 billion in October for the biggest monthly gain since November 2015. Nonrevolving credit, which tracks vehicle financing and also student loans, rose $12.2 billion. After October's $20.5 billion increase, consumer credit is expected to rise $18.0 billion in November.

Tuesday

Small Business Optimism Index for December

Consensus Forecast: 107.9

Consensus Range: 105.8 to 109.5

The small business optimism index jumped in November to its best level of the expansion, since November 2004. Strength was broad based including rising confidence in economic conditions and sales expectations. Econoday's call for December is 107.9 vs November's 107.5.

JOLTS: Job Openings for November

Consensus Forecast: 6.038 million

Consensus Range: 6.000 to 6.200 million

The unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, is very low and consistent with full employment which has also been the continuing the signal from the JOLTS report. Job openings in the report have been running at 6 million and have been exceeding hires which supports concern that business expansion is being limited a scarcity of qualified workers. Econoday's consensus for November job openings is 6.038 million.

Wednesday

Import Prices for December

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.8%

Export Prices

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.4%

Cross-border price pressures picked up sharply in November, rising 0.7 percent for import prices on higher petroleum costs and up 0.5 percent for export prices on industrial supplies where petroleum prices were also a factor. But November's pressures did not pass through as finished prices remained dormant. Econoday's consensus for December import prices is 0.4 percent with export prices at 0.3 percent.

Wholesale Inventories for November

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.7%

Consensus Range: 0.6% to 0.7%

Wholesale trade inventories are expected to rise 0.7 percent in line with advance data which showed a 0.7 percent build. Inventories in general, including at the wholesale level, have been on an orderly climb in response to strong demand.

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims for January 6 week

Consensus Forecast: 245,000

Consensus Range: 240,000 to 270,000

Initial claims are expected to come in at 245,000 in the December 30 week vs 250,000 in the two prior weeks. Claims have been very low and favorable and consistent with very strong demand for labor.

PPI-FD for December

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: -0.1% to 0.5%

PPI-FD Less Food & Energy

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.3%

PPI-FD Less Food, Energy, & Trade Services

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.3%

Consumer inflation has been very subdued but not at the wholesale level, rising 0.4 percent in each of the past three producer price reports that included gains for service prices which are considered an advanced indication of wider pressures ahead. Prices for legal services showed special pressure in November as well as oil, fruits and vegetables and also light trucks. For December, forecasters see the PPI-FD rising a more subdued 0.2 percent, the less food and energy rate also up 0.2 percent, and again up 0.2 percent for less food, energy and trade services.

Treasury Budget for November

Consensus Forecast: -$32.0 billion

Consensus Range: -$54.0 billion to -$23.0 billion

Two months into fiscal 2018, the Treasury's deficit was $201.8 billion or 10.6 percent deeper than two months into fiscal 2017. The deficit for the month of December is expected to come in at $32.0 billion.

Friday

Consumer Price Index for December

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.1%

Consensus Range: 0.0% to 0.3%

Consumer Price Index

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 2.1%

Consensus Range: 2.0% to 2.3%

CPI Core, Less Food & Energy

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.3%

CPI Core, Less Food & Energy

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 1.7%

Consensus Range: 1.6% to 1.8%

Gasoline prices gave a 0.4 percent headline boost to the December CPI which for this key series was an outsized gain. Other prices were flat or weaker including apparel, medical care, and housing. For December, forecasters see the overall CPI rising only 0.1 percent with the less food & energy rate at 0.2 percent. Year-on-year, the consensus gain for the CPI is 2.1 percent with the core at 1.7 percent.

Retail Sales for December

Consensus Forecast: 0.5%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.7%

Retail Sales Ex-Autos

Consensus Forecast: 0.4%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.8%

Retail Sales Ex-Autos Ex-Gas

Consensus Forecast: 0.5%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.6%

Retail Sales Control Group (Ex-Food Services, Ex-Autos, Ex-Gas, Ex-Building Materials)

Consensus Forecast: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.3% to 0.6%

November's opening of the holiday shopping season proved very strong as retail sales showed broad strength with a 0.8 percent gain. Nonstore sales rose sharply and pointed to a fast holiday opening for e-commerce. Electronics and appliance stores along with restaurants also posted strong numbers that speak to discretionary strength. Retail sales in December are expected to rise a solid 0.5 percent with ex-auto sales at 0.4 percent. Two core readings -- less auto & gas and control group sales -- are expected to post respective increases of 0.5 and 0.3 percent.

Business Inventories for November

Consensus Forecast,  Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.2% to 0.4%

Business inventories have been rising in line with underlining sales though October did see a 0.1 percent draw. Forecasters are expecting a 0.3 percent build for November inventories.