Personal Income And Spending On The Rise

Personal income rose 0.4 percent in December with wages and salaries up a solid 0.5 percent. Spending also rose 0.4 percent in December with November revised 2 tenths higher to a very strong 0.8 percent gain. Giving a boost to spending but hinting at trouble for the consumer is a 1 tenth dip in the savings rate to a 13-year low 2.4 percent which follows a sharply downward revised 2.5 percent rate in November (2.9 percent initially reported).

Price data remain very subdued, up 0.1 percent for the overall index and up 0.2 percent for the core which excludes food and energy. Year-on-year, the overall price index is up 1.7 percent which is 1 tenth below November while the core is stable at 1.5 percent.

The wages and salaries reading is a positive for the outlook as is the upward revision to November consumer spending. But the low reading for the savings rate is a concern and suggests that consumers dipped into their bank accounts to fund spending. Note that today's data were part of last week's fourth-quarter GDP report.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
The monthly personal income and outlays report will unbundle December's data from last week's fourth-quarter GDP report. Personal income is seen rising 0.3 percent which would match November's gain while consumer spending is expected to slow only slightly to 0.5 percent vs November's very solid 0.6 percent gain. The PCE price index is expected to inch only 0.1 percent higher for a year-on-year rate of 1.7 percent with the core PCE price index, which excludes both food and energy, seen up 0.2 percent for a yearly 1.6 percent.