Chicago PMI Sample Continues Rare Rate Of Growth

Chicago PMI's sample starts off 2018 where it left off 2017, at a rare rate of growth. January's 65.7 easily beats Econoday's consensus for 64.0 with strength led by a 6-year high for employment and slowing in delivery times. Both of these factors are consistent with capacity stress which has been apparent in this survey. An easing back in order acceleration during January and a draw in backlogs are probably positives for the month. Production also slowed. Unsustainable growth has been the signal from the Chicago report where readings, in more than 50 years of data, have been at historic highs.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
Enormously strong growth, well in excess of the national economy, was last year's results for the Chicago PMI which surged to end 2017 at a December score of 67.8 (revised 2 tenths higher from the initial reading). This index doesn't have much headroom left as forecasters are calling for easing in January to what is still a very robust 64.0. Readings from this sample, which track both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms in the Chicago economy, are at or near historic highs in data that go back more than 50 years.