The Business Week Ahead

The last week of the year will be a quiet one for the economic calendar offering last looks at December's factory activity with both the Richmond and Dallas reports on Tuesday. Housing data have been sweeping higher and strength is the call for Case-Shiller home price data and pending home sales, both out on Wednesday. Consumer confidence, which has been holding at 17-year highs, will post its final 2017 report on Wednesday while advance trade data on goods, an area that may not be positive for fourth-quarter GDP, will be Thursday's highlight. The last report on economic conditions to be released in the year will be the Chicago PMI which, like all the other anecdotal reports, has been reporting unusual strength.

Tuesday

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December

Consensus Forecast: 23

Consensus Range: 20 to 31

Both new orders and backlog orders surged in November's Richmond Fed manufacturing report which like other regional reports has been running this year at the hottest levels on record. The index jumped in November to 30 with forecasters calling for only modest cooling in December to 23.

Dallas Fed General Activity Index for December

Consensus Forecast: 20.0

Consensus Range: 18.0 to 22.0 

Readings on costs and production cooled to more sustainable levels in the November manufacturing report from the Dallas Fed though new orders remained very strong in what points to continued strains on capacity. Econoday's consensus for the general activity index in December is 20.0 vs November's 19.4.

Wednesday

Case-Shiller, 20-City Adjusted Index for October

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.6%

Consensus Range: 0.6% to 0.7%

Case-Shiller, 20-City Unadjusted Index

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.5%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.5%

Case-Shiller, 20-City Unadjusted Index

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 6.3%

Consensus Range: 6.1% to  6.4%

Home-price appreciation has been one of the high points of the 2017 economy, underlined by September's Case-Shiller report which came in at the high end of expectations showing gains for all 20 cities. Econoday's consensus for October is calling for a very strong 0.6 percent increase in the 20-city adjusted index. The consensus for the unadjusted monthly index is plus 0.5 percent with the consensus for the year-on-year rate at 6.3 percent.

Consumer Confidence Index for December

Consensus Forecast: 128.0

Consensus Range: 127.0 to 130.0

Consumer confidence, at 129.5, is coming off a 17-year high in November when assessments of employment, income expectations and the stock market were all once again unusually strong. The Econoday consensus is calling for 128.0 in December.

Pending Home Sales Index for November

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.6%

Consensus Range: -1.0% to 5.0%

Led by a hurricane bounce in the South, the pending home sales index jumped a much sharper-than-expected 3.5 percent in October to correctly predict strength in existing home sales for November. The Econoday consensus for November's pending sales index is a gain of 0.6 percent.

Thursday

International Trade In Goods for  November

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: -$67.6 billion

Consensus Range: -$69.5 to -$66.0 billion

The goods deficit in November is expected to narrow to a consensus $67.6 billion and only modestly below what was an unusually wide $68.1 billion in October ($68.3 billion initially reported). Looking back at October, exports fell 1.0 percent on declines in food products and capital goods while imports rose 1.5 percent on increases for industrial supplies and consumer goods. Also released with the report will be advance November data for both wholesale inventories and retail inventories which, like net exports, are also GDP inputs.

Initial Jobless Claims for December 23 week

Consensus Forecast: 240,000

Consensus Range: 235,000 to 240,000

Initial claims are expected to come in at 240,000 in the December 23 week vs 245,000 in the December 16 week. Claims have been very low and favorable and consistent with very strong demand for labor.

Friday

Chicago PMI for December

Consensus Forecast: 63.0

Consensus Range: 61.0 to 65.4

Growth has been steady and robust all year for the Chicago PMI which, at 63.9 in November, has been over 60 for the last three reports. Overheating is palpable in this report with a lack of available workers keeping down employment and limiting business expansion. For December, forecasters are calling for another 60-plus result at a consensus 63.0. This report tracks both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the Chicago-area economy.