The Business Week Ahead

Friday's employment report will be the week's economic focus and solid strength is the call, a return to normalcy after the disruptions of the hurricane season. The week opens with factory orders on Monday and another look at the durables economy which, outside of monthly swings, appears to be building steam. But the trade report on Tuesday could be reason for some concern as October's deficit, based on preliminary data, looks to have widened sharply to begin the fourth quarter. Service sector updates, which are usually strong, will also be posted Tuesday. ADP on Wednesday and jobless claims will offer last looks at the labor market going into November's employment report on Friday.

Monday

Factory Orders for October

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: -0.4%

Consensus Range: -0.8% to -0.1%

Factory orders for aircraft and capital goods, which had been very strong in prior months, fell back in October and set up what is expected to be a 0.4 percent decline for the month's factory orders. But outside these factors, factory orders are likely to show strength and confirm expectations for fourth-quarter manufacturing strength.

Tuesday

International Trade Balance for October

Consensus Forecast: -$47.1 billion

Consensus Range: -$47.7 to -$44.0 billion

The international trade deficit is expected to widen sharply in October, to $47.1 billion from September's $43.5 billion in what would be a negative start for fourth-quarter net exports. The forecast is based on a sharp widening in October's trade deficit for goods where exports fell sharply and imports of consumer products jumped.

PMI Services for November, Final

Consensus Forecast: 54.7

Consensus Range: 54.7 to 55.1

PMI services slowed slightly in the November flash but details still held solid led by new orders and a 3-month high for employment. Both input costs and selling prices, in a special sign of strength, are increasing for this sample. The Econoday consensus is calling for no change from the flash, at 54.7.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for November

Consensus Forecast: 59.0

Consensus Range: 58.0 to 59.7

ISM non-manufacturing posted its best composite score of the expansion in October, at 60.1 for a peak last matched at the height of the prior expansion in 2004. New orders including export orders are unusually strong. Backlogs have been building and employment is at a 6-month high. Only limited slowing, to 59.0 from 60.1, is the Econoday consensus for November.

Wednesday

ADP, Private Payrolls for November

Consensus Forecast: 192,000

Consensus Range: 159,000 to 235,000

ADP made a good call back in October, looking for sharp but still limited bounce back for payrolls which were depressed by hurricanes in September. The consensus for ADP's November call is 192,000 vs ADP's October call of 235,000.

Thursday

Initial Jobless Claims for December 2 week

Consensus Forecast: 240,000

Consensus Range: 234,000 to 245,000

Initial claims are expected to come in at 240,000 in the December 2 week vs 238,000 in the November 25 week. Data throughout this report are near historic lows and claims from Puerto Rico may now be coming down following Hurricane Maria.

Consumer Credit for October

Consensus Forecast: $17.0 billion

Consensus Range: $16.0 to $19.5 billion

Revolving credit has been on the rise which may be a positive for the holiday shopping outlook but a negative perhaps for credit standards. After increasing a sharp $20.8 billion in September, consumer credit is expected to rise $17.0 billion in October.

Friday

Nonfarm Payrolls for November

Consensus Forecast: 185,000

Consensus Range: 153,000 to 250,000

Unemployment Rate

Consensus Forecast: 4.1%

Consensus Range: 4.0% to 4.3%

Private Payrolls 

Consensus Forecast: 183,000

Consensus Range: 157,000 to 245,000

Manufacturing Payrolls 

Consensus Forecast: 20,000

Consensus Range: 10,000 to 20,000

Average Hourly Earnings

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%

Consensus Range: 0.1% to 0.4%

Average Hourly Earnings

Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 2.6%

Consensus Range: 2.5% to 2.8%

Average Workweek

Consensus Forecast: 34.4 hours

Consensus Range: 34.4 to 34.5 hours

Hurricane effects are expected to be confined to September, when nonfarm payrolls rose only 18,000, and to October when they snapped back to 261,000. November's consensus is an intrend and still strong 185,000. The unemployment rate never showed much effect from the hurricanes, dropping a tenth in October to 4.1 percent where it is expected to hold in November. Moderate strength is expected for average hourly earnings, at a consensus 0.3 percent monthly gain for an improving 2.6 percent year-on-year rate. Other calls are for a 183,000 rise in private payrolls, another strong gain at 20,000 gain for manufacturing payrolls, and no change for the workweek at 34.4 hours.

Consumer Sentiment Index, Preliminary December

Consensus Forecast: 98.8

Consensus Range: 96.5 to 101.1 

The consumer sentiment index edged back in November but still came in at a very solid 98.5. The report notes strong certainty among consumers for gains in income and employment. A slight gain is the call for the preliminary December index to 98.8.

Wholesale Inventories for October

Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: -0.1%

Consensus Range: -0.4% to 0.4%

Wholesale trade inventories are expected to fall 0.1 percent following a decline in October's advance reading. Wholesale inventories had been climbing sharply in prior months.