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Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Service Sector Reports Show Mixed Results

Markit's U.S. service-sector sample reported solid growth but still the softest since June, at a composite score of 54.5 in November which is little changed from the mid-month flash and down 8 tenths from October.

New orders growth are the highlight of the report as is employment which is at a 3-month high. Both input costs for goods and selling prices are rising for this sample.

Business confidence, getting a boost from planned investment and the rise in new orders, is also very strong though slightly lower than October. Yet the report warns that confidence in the year-ahead outlook "deteriorated" which may point to a rise in risk aversion that could hurt future employment and hiring.

A clear negative is a slowing in backlog accumulation in the weakest showing since June. Despite some soft spots, this report is still very solid.


Recent History Of This Indicator
PMI services slowed slightly in the November flash but details still held solid led by new orders and a 3-month high for employment. Both input costs and selling prices, in a special sign of strength, are increasing for this sample. The Econoday consensus is calling for no change from the flash, at 54.7. 

...meanwhile...

Growth cooled noticeably in ISM's non-manufacturing report with is probably a plus given unsustainably high levels in prior reports. At 57.4, November's composite score came in below the low end of expectations but is still however a very strong rate of growth.

Most readings eased by several points with new orders at 58.7, employment at 55.3, and backlog orders at 51.5. Export orders also eased, to 57.0. Delivery delays are improving which is a negative in the calculation of the composite with input price pressures easing slightly. Inventories rose but this is not a key factor as only about 1/5 of this sample even carries inventories.

One reading that held above the 60 threshold is business activity at 61.4 which is a reminder that the nation's output continues to expand at a solid rate. Yet the overall results, along with this morning's PMI services index, do point to slowing for the bulk of the economy in November and also fit in with slowing among several of the regional factory reports during the month. Note that today's ISM report tracks, unlike the PMI services, construction and mining which were mixed with the former expanding but the latter contracting in November.

Recent History Of This Indicator:
ISM non-manufacturing posted its best composite score of the expansion in October, at 60.1 for a peak last matched at the height of the prior expansion in 2004. New orders including export orders are unusually strong. Backlogs have been building and employment is at a 6-month high. Only limited slowing, to 59.0 from 60.1, is the Econoday consensus for November.

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